Options strategies are often used to reduce or eliminate the risk of holding one particular investment position by taking another position. In general, a long option position is a speculation that something will happen (bear, bull, lateral) whereas a short option is a speculation that something will NOT happen (not bear, not bull, not lateral).
Options strategies
When looking for an option strategy, there are three main things to consider:
- The forecast of the direction of the underlying
- The forecast of the volatility of the underlying
- The amount of acceptable risk
A bullish underlying forecast requires an option strategy that profits when the market rises (long delta). Instead, a neutral underlying forecast implies the underlying to remain in a tight range so that the option profits when the underlying remains range-bound. A realized volatility forecast provides information about the expected underlying’s volatility (expressed through a Gamma position), whereas an implied volatility forecast is a statement about the value of the options traded (expressed through a Vega position). Finally, an increasing forecast requires a long position (gamma or vega).
Spreads
An option spread is constructed with a long option and short option that may differ only in the strike price (a vertical spread) or in the expiration date (a calendar spread) or in both (a diagonal spread).
- For a vertical spread, both legs should be out‐of‐the‐money when the trade is executed or one leg is at‐the‐money and the other leg is out‐of‐the‐money since they similarly behave. In general, buying call spread needs the market to rally for the spread to be profitable; instead, selling an OTM call spread needs the underlying to go down, sideways, and even up a little, but below the strike price. It is the long OTM put spread requiring the underlying stock to fall in order to make money. Shorting an OTM put spread, needs the underlying to rally, to move sideways, and even to fall a little bit.
- Calendar spreads can be bullish, bearish, or neutral, depending on the strike price we select and its relationship to the at‐the‐money level. Generally, the further the strike price is from at‐the‐money, the more volatility needed for the trade to be profitable, so the more volatility you would be expecting if you chose to initiate that trade. A long call/put calendar is inexpensive to initiate but requires a significant movement in the underlying stock in order to be profitable; instead, neutral calendars are more expensive. Catalysts (earnings releases, dividends, new product releases, the release of clinical trial data and many other types of market-moving events) might impact the later expiration but not the first expiration of their calendar spread. After the first expiration, the remaining option can be sold or it can be extended in a super-calendar by selling another option, identical to the remaining option but with a shorter time to expiration. Thus, a super-calendar can help to profit from a winning trade or to rehab a calendar spread that didn’t work out because the front-month option was in‐the‐money at expiration.