Category: Theory

A Primer on Financial Derivatives

A Primer on Financial Derivatives

Financial derivatives are often used for commodities, like corn, oil, gasoline, or gold, and for currencies, often the U.S. Dollar abd the Euro. However, there are derivatives based on stocks, bonds, interest rates, and indices. Companies use derivatives to lower their operational risk for the delivery of raw materials, the changes in exchange rates or in interest rates. Trading requires a small down payment (margin) and usually consists of rolling positions (contracts are liquidated by another derivative before coming to term).

Safe Heaven Portfolio Analysis

Safe Heaven Portfolio Analysis

Safe heaven portfolio can be a wise option considering 2019 marks the 11th year to an already-extended bull market which started in in the aftermath of the great financial crisis. It has been a long and very rewarding run for all investors… Especially REIT investors who have continued their long streak of market outperformance. Since we are likely to hit a recession sooner rather than later (1-2 years), tracking a safe heaven portfolio is important.

Quantitative Trading

Quantitative Trading

Quantitative Trading relates to the development strategies based on econometrics and mathematical models employng historical. While it was a prerogative of financial institutions and hedge funds, today it can be implemented, altough on a smaller scale, by small trading firms and individuals. In general, the strategy is completely automated (order generation, submission, and execution) but…

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Financial Constraints on Inventory Investment

Financial Constraints on Inventory Investment

Inventories have been studied by macro-economist for their role in the business cycles (Abramovitz 1950) and their relation with corporate profits (Mitchell 1951, Lucas 1977) and with the volatility of cash flows (Fazzari, Hubbard et al. 1988), both key leading indicators of the state of the economy (Carpenter, Fazzari et al. 1994); other evidence suggests their implications on the general level of the economy in case of financial shocks because of erroneous forecasts (Bernanke and Gertler 1989, Bernanke, Gertler et al. 1996) or their limited efficiency in collateralization (Berk 2014).

Event Studies

Event Studies

Event studies are generally employed by financial economists to specify and test interesting economic hypotheses. Systematically nonzero abnormal security returns that persist after a particular type of corporate event are inconsistent with market efficiency. Common examples include earnings, mergers, and capital issuances.

Guessing Market Cycles

Guessing Market Cycles

Market cycles can be analized through the formation of bubbles consisting of four phases: Accumulation, Mark-Up, Distribution, and Mark-Down. Usually, accumulation coincides with the early stages of recovery, mark-up with the consolidation of the economic condition leading to a bullish sentiment, distribution substantially with lateral movements and indecision in market sentiment, and mark-down with the early stages of mid recession.

Oil Correlations with Commodity Currencies

Oil Correlations with Commodity Currencies

Currencies move with supply and demand, politics, interest rates, speculation, and GDP. Thus, whenever growth in a country is mainly commanded by commodities exports, some currencies are generally correlated with commodity prices. Major commodity currencies include the Australian Dollar, the New Zealand Dollar, the Canadian Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the Swiss Franc. Minor currencies include the Russian Ruble, the Colombian Peso, and the Peruvian Sol.

Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators

The leading economic index (LEI) for the United States was implemented in 1996 and introduced the interest rate spread as a measure for recessions but also measures used to cover manufacturing orders, commodity, prices, and inflation. The LEI index is thought to change in advance of the general economy; thus, it is used to gauge whether the pace of future business activity is expected to accelerate, decelerate, or trend sideways.

Correlation Studies

Correlation Studies

The “personality” of correlations may be of particular interest to asset allocation strategists because research demonstrates that a more active approach to how we view and use the correlation statistic can materially impact results. Indeed, investments are often assesed using correlation of monthly returns between two asset classes; however, daily or other time-frames can be…

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My view on investment management

My view on investment management

It is has been long held that the asset allocation policy may account up to the 90% of the variation in returns (Brinson, Hood, & Beebower, 1995). However, other studies argued that about three-quarters of such variation are explained by the market movement, and the remaining by the equal contribution of the specific asset allocation…

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